Median Income By Gender 1966 - 2007

Over the last 40 years, the composition of the full-time work force changed from about 25% female to about 42% female.

During the same period, median female income almost doubled while male income remained flat.

Source: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/histinc/histinctb.html

Bolt

Great Architecture

Graduations

Jacob Graduating from Brown June 2006

Jacob Commencing from Matt Kuenzel on Vimeo.

Laney Graduating from HB June 2008

... coming soon ...

Believe It Or Not ... Real Philosophy

Gilles Deleuze


Gilles Deleuze was a French 20th century philosopher. His main philosophical project was the systematic inversion of the traditional metaphysical relationship between identity and difference.

Traditionally, difference is seen as derivative from identity:
to say that "X is different from Y" assumes X and Y have identities ... But ... Deleuze says that apparent identities such as "X" and "Y" are actually composed of endless series of differences.

Deleuze's work led Michel Foucalt (another 20th century French philosopher) to declare that "one day, perhaps, this century will be called Deleuzian." Source: Wikipedia.


Geography and Schizophrenia: Deleuzification of the Discipline?

Conference Presentation by Mark Bonta, Delta State University

Despite an earthly and materialist approach to ontology, a complexification of terrestrial processes worthy of the most intricately detailed earth science treatise, and an obviously geographic terminology, A Thousand Plateaus has not been readily adopted by academic geographers. This paper probes the geographicality of ATP and its potential for the discipline while at the same time offering a cautionary message about the likelihood of its ontology working its way into geographic thought. After a discussion of postmodern misreadings of ATP, I elaborate on substantive contributions it can make to our conceptualization of space, place, landscape, and region, the subjects of interminable quarrelling in the discipline. To conclude, I illustrate the possibilities of ATP in geography in a brief presentation of a case study in Honduras.

Object-Oriented Ontology

Conference Presentation by Aden Evens, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Object-orientation is not only the latest paradigm in computer programming but underlies the operation of every program, archaic to cutting-edge. Computer programs are wholly determined by a spec, which measures success unequivocally in terms of determinate goals (objects). Thus, programs are driven by objects, and the job of the programmer seems plodding, churning out code governed by a preestablished aim. But something novel takes place when the object is lifted from the world and placed within the program. For an object in a program represents an additional dimension, a pleat or fold in the flat plane of the digital code. Objects allow computer programs to refer to themselves, to gain a (limited) sense of context. Structuring objects to manipulate a program's self-reference, programmers exceed their mundane charge to become creative. This paper analyzes objects as the site where human desire is folded into a computer program.

Chaosmologies: Chaos and Thought in What is Philosophy?, with Quantum Field Theory

Conference Presentation by Arkady Plotnitsky

The paper will explore the relationships between the philosophical underpinnings of quantum field theory and Deleuze's concept of the virtual, most especially in conjunction with the particular idea of chaos (as an infinite speed of birth and disappearance of forms, rather than chaos as disorder) found in Deleuze and Guattari's What is Philosophy?, the idea that, I shall argue, transpires and appears to be in part derived by them from the philosophical conceptuality of quantum field theory. The paper will then discuss, from this perspective, the relationships between philosophy and science, and their respective ways of confronting chaos, as these subjects are considered in the book.

Previous three are quoted verbatim from conference page: http://vlp.mpiwg-berlin.mpg.de/exp/schmidgen_e/abstract_deleuze.html.

Money Worries IV

Prices move through the economy as crude goods -> intermediate goods -> finished goods, increases reach the consumer after a lag.

Money Worries III

Historical perspective from 30 years ago:

Troop levels peaked in Viet Nam in 1968. The war had been costly and the government had run deficits to pay for it. About five years later with inflation accelerating, Richard Nixon did one of the dumbest things ever by imposing wage and price controls throughout the economy.

The oil exporting nations of the Middle East got upset that their dollar payments were declining in value (they were also angry about US and Western European support for Israel) so they formed OPEC and imposed an oil embargo on Western nations. Oil prices rose dramatically. Policy changes under Reagan and Volcker and a serious recession around 1980 finally brought inflation down.

Money Worries II

The Social Security gap is an issue that politicians have talked and warned about for 20 years. But being so far in the future it was basically dismissed as noise - too many other urgent problems to deal with. Now the funding gap problem is only about 10 years in the future, which means it moves into the planning horizon for budgetary purposes.

Money Worries I

Major currencies are increasing in value versus the US dollar. Equivalently the dollar is losing value against all major currencies.

Euro



Yen



British Pound



Swiss Franc

The U.S. Physician Shortage

The paradox: getting an appointment with a doctor especially a specialist is extremely difficult. On the other hand, we constantly hear that the U.S. spends more per person on health care than any other country.

So, how is it that with all that spending we have the symptoms of a physician shortage?

Does the U.S. have a physician shortage? Here is the data:




GDP data from International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database September 2000

Physician data from World Health Organization

Numbers graphed are ratio of physicians per $1,000,000 of GDP


More Data: physicians per 1000 population for the 80 countries with the most physicians. The U.S. is 37th.

Rank Country  Phys Per 1000 Pop

1   Cuba   66567  5.91
2   Belarus  45027  4.55
3   Belgium  46268  4.49
4   Greece   47944  4.38
5   Russian  609043  4.25
6   Italy   241000  4.20
7   Turkmenistan  20032  4.18
8   Georgia  20962  4.09
9   Lithuania  13682  3.97
10  Israel   24577  3.82
11  Uruguay  12384  3.65
12  Switzerland  25921  3.61
13  Armenia  10983  3.59
14  Bulgaria  28128  3.56
15  Azerbaijan  29687  3.55
16  Kazakhstan  54613  3.54
17  Czech Republic  35960  3.51
18  Portugal  34440  3.42
19  Austria  27413  3.38
20  Germany  277885  3.37
21  France   203487  3.37
22  Hungary  32877  3.33
23  Spain   135300  3.30
24  Dem Pple Korea  74597  3.29
25  Sweden   29122  3.28
26  Lebanon  11505  3.25
27  Slovakia  17172  3.18
28  Finland  16446  3.16
29  Netherlands  50854  3.15
30  Norway   14200  3.13
31  Argentina  108800  3.01
32  Ukraine  143202  2.95
33  Denmark  15653  2.93
34  Ireland  11141  2.79
35  Uzbekistan  71623  2.74
36  Moldova  11246  2.64


37  USA   730801  2.56


38  Kyrgyzstan  12902  2.51
39  Australia  47875  2.47
40  Poland          95272  2.47
41  Croatia  10820  2.44
42  United Kingdom  133641  2.30
43  Canada   66583  2.14
44  Serbia and Mont 21738  2.06
45  Tajikistan  12697  2.03
46  Jordan   11398  2.03
47  Mexico   195897  1.98
48  Japan   251889  1.98
49  Venezuela  48000  1.94
50  Romania  42538  1.90
51  Dominican Rep  15670  1.88
52  Korea   75045  1.57
53  Ecuador  18335  1.48
54  Syria   23742  1.40
55  Saudi Arabia  34261  1.37
56  Colombia  58761  1.35
57  Turkey   96000  1.35
58  Tunisia  13330  1.34
59  Bolivia  10329  1.22
60  Peru   29799  1.17
61  Brazil   198153  1.15
62  Algeria  35368  1.13
63  Chile   17250  1.09
64  China   1364000 1.06
65  South Africa  34829  0.77
66  Pakistan  116298  0.74
67  Malaysia  16146  0.70
68  Iraq   17022  0.66
69  India   645825  0.60
70  Philippines  44287  0.58
71  Sri Lanka  10479  0.55
72  Egypt   38485  0.54
73  Viet Nam  42327  0.53
74  Morocco  15991  0.51
75  Iran   31394  0.45
76  Thailand  22435  0.37
77  Myanmar  17791  0.36
78  Nigeria  34923  0.28
79  Bangladesh  38485  0.26
80  Indonesia  29499  0.13

Physician Compensation Comparing the U.S. and Europe

U.S. salaried general practitioners receive the highest compensation among reporting countries:



U.S. self-employed general practitioners receive the highest compensation among reporting countries:



U.S. salaried specialists are tied for the highest compensation among reporting countries:



U.S. self-employed specialists receive highest compensation among reporting countries except for Belgium and Netherlands:



Source: OECD, Link

Money

Money: the great truth-teller.

Money is the messenger that announces our consensus valuation, the medium by which we aggregate millions of individual value judgments into one.

And the reason that we denounce money, revile money, sneer at money is: we don't want to hear the truth.

Complex Systems - What Works Best?

METHOD 1

LOOP: [entities] compete 
      select best [entities] 
      increase best [entities]
      diversify best [entities]
      destroy remaining [entities] 
      go to LOOP


Observed Results


entities=
genes            success
organisms        success
species          success
businesses       success
ideas            success
schools          not tried


METHOD 2

experts design [entities] 
LOOP: [entities] operate 
      experts identify problems with [entities]
      experts make small changes to [entities] 
      go to LOOP



Observed Results


entities=
airplanes          success
cars               short-term success, long-term failure
businesses         failure
economies          failure
ideas              failure
schools            short-term success, long-term failure

Mike

Sanya usually went to sleep early. That night she wasn't feeling well so she was in bed by 9. I was still wide awake so I thought I may as well walk over to Freeburger. I was going through one of my phases, at least that's what Sanya said. I was drawing and sculpting and wondering how a lump of clay or an oil on canvas could generate emotions. I smoked and sculpted and drew, and never went to classes. Yeah, Sanya was right, it was a phase.

So I walked over to Freeburger. It was almost deserted. Went straight to the over-sized books. That's where they kept the art books, the ones filled with color reproductions. I was flipping through a book on Impressionism. A hundred years ago everything happened. Darwin, Freud, Marx, Cezanne, Monet. I was looking at Cezanne's Boy In a Red Vest. The library was very quiet, all the windows were dark. I felt like I was the only one in the place. Suddenly this little slimy guy in a security guard outfit was standing there. Hi, how are ya he said. Hi I answered. His face was frozen in an oily smile and he was extending his hand. When I shook it I felt the fag handshake. That's what people called it - the middle finger folded into the palm. What are you doing tonight? he said. Studying, exams ... I said. See ya around he said as he strolled away, that smile still hanging in the air. I took the book, walked through the library searching for a desk, a little fortress. Couldn't find one so I walked down the stairs and out into the night air. But I had started thinking about other times that guys had done that to me.

I used to hitchhike almost every day. But after a while getting picked up by fags started to bother me. Do you have a girlfriend? they would say. I didn't but after a few times I had learned to say yes. They would paste on a sickly sweet smile the whole time and answer Wherever you're going when I asked where they were heading. Straight guys gave me rides too. Once I got a ride from three black guys smoking up. The car was so thick with smoke you could barely see out the windshield. They were laughing and toking. I passed the joint but when I got out I had a buzz. I liked hitchhiking but people stopped doing it around 1972. Everybody was safer but we were all living in an even more hermetically sealed bubble. Why do people make themselves lonelier than they already are? But I did meet a good friend hitchhiking. His name was Mike.

Mike had graduated from the university a few years earlier and he had read nearly everything that I had. But at 25 he was delivering pizzas. One summer he got me a delivery job at the same place. After work, 2 am or so we would hang out, have a drink or smoke a joint. We were high one night listening to some tapes in his car. He popped one in and, damn if it wasn't my favorite at the time. Flute and Piano. Most guys would have called it faggy but I listened to it every day that summer. I said You like this? ... I love this album. He smiled and looked at me like he knew something about me that I didn't. I wondered about the feeling I had for him at that moment. Later that summer he told me that his father had died of Huntington's disease at 45 and that there was a 50% chance he had the gene. There was a test but he didn't want to know or at least he didn't have the courage to find out. I understood why he was delivering pizzas. I felt sad like I wanted to hug him. I guess I was confused because a straight guy couldn't love another guy.

I had walked a few blocks towards home with thoughts of hitchhiking bouncing around in my head. I thought Why not?, went to the side of the road and stuck out my thumb. A pair of headlights was approaching. The car slowed and I walked to the side to look inside. Shit! I thought. It was that same creepy little security guard. I fell right into a full sprint. In the opposite direction. After a quarter mile I slowed down and jogged the rest of the way home.

When I walked into the bedroom Sanya made a funny sound. What's wrong, kid? I said. Evan, my head ... I've got a splitting headache, she was almost in tears. I sat on the bed beside her, gathered back her hair, put two fingers softly on each temple and began to massage. You'll feel better soon I said.

Kristen

One night Sanya invited Kristen and her boyfriend over. Sanya was my girlfriend at the time and we lived together off-campus in an old apartment building. Kristen lived in the dorms and was an English major. Barry was in law school.The place was mildly depressing, kind of dark. Sanya kept sitting down and standing up, looking out the window, eating chips and cashews, adjusting pillows and such.

Finally there was a knock. When they came in Kristen looked great as usual. She was taller than Barry but he was somewhat stylish also in a shiny leather jacket. The three of them sat on the couch and I sat opposite on a chair. I hadn't meant to but I was lined up perfectly with Kristen. She was wearing jeans, not the tight kind but not baggy either. Sanya poured us some wine and put on some music. We talked, had more wine. Everyone seemed to relax. Barry had put his hand on Kristen's knee, his fingers touching the inside of her thigh. I thought I must have noticed too long so I glanced all around the room and out the window. When I looked back at Kristen her expression hadn't changed. I smiled at her and said Does anyone want a beer? We're out of wine. Barry said he would like one so I went into the kitchen which was only a few steps away because the apartment was so small.

I was standing at the counter opening a couple bottles and Kristen walked in. She kept walking, right up to me, pressed her body against mine, put her lips to mine. We kissed for a second or two, very wet, very open, not a slow well-planned kiss but an urgent kiss. She glanced into my eyes just long enough to hold them then she picked up a bottle and walked out. Now I need to tell you that I have never been good at picking up messages from women. That may be a cliche but I honestly didn't know what that kiss was. Sure we were friends so maybe it was just a friendly kiss. Or was it loving kiss, a sexy kiss, a goodbye kiss, a hello kiss? A joke of some sort? Did I imagine it? I grabbed my bottle and walked back in. We chatted for another hour. I found it hard to avoid noticing that Barry's hand had moved up a few notches on Kristen's thigh. Then Barry yawned and they said they had to get going.

I saw Kristen every now and then over the next few weeks. Sometimes Sanya and Kristen and I would have coffee or lunch or go to the library. We never mentioned the kiss. But I had been thinking about it. That was like me - wait weeks or months to formulate a response. So it was already nearly the end of the semester when I woke up one morning thinking about Kristen. OK, I thought, today is the day to do something. I had never actually called her before but that day I called her and asked if she'd like to get lunch downtown at a Chinese place called Bo Long. We rarely ate that far from campus. She sounded happy and said OK.

We took the train a few stops and then walked a few blocks to the restaurant. I can't recall what we ate or much of the conversation just that the kiss was never mentioned. We watched each other as if waiting for it to come up but it didn't. Lunch was pleasant enough, back on the train and to campus. We were walking up Murray Hill, it was late fall, damp, cloudy, good time for a nap or a jog, I thought. I was about to turn towards my place but she was talking about something. We slowed down and then stood on the sidewalk facing each other. Do you want me to walk you home? I said. No I have a class in an hour so I'll stay around till then. she said. But she didn't turn, she didn't even look in the direction of campus. A few moments passed and I said OK, well thanks it was fun. I guess I will see you ... and I touched her coat sleeve. She smiled and turned towards campus. I walked home, got under the blankets with a book and fell asleep on the second page.

We had exams a few weeks later then break. The next time I saw her was late January at the old Freeburger library. She was checking out a book. We chatted for a minute, How was your break? ... Good ... Yours? ... Same. Then she said I'll talk to you soon ... and pranced off. Freeburger was more a large overcrowded bookstore than a library. Like a warren of tunnels lined by books, just a few tables and desks at the periphery, very cozy and nothing like the new library building with its soaring interior that felt like an airport terminal. I almost randomly picked a few books, an English author on sociology, a French author on art, the Congressional Record from some day in 1965. Usually I could spend a blissful afternoon there, reading by a window for hours, seeing maybe one other person in that whole time because few came to this library anymore. But I felt strange that day, lonelier than usual.

She called me the next day. For the first time. Would you like to go back downtown to Bo Long for lunch? she asked. Sure I said. We sat in a half dark part of the restaurant at a table with a candle in the middle. We drank hot tea that felt warm and talked about school. Sometimes we just gazed at each other. Coming back to campus the same thing happened - we didn't want to separate. We got to about the same place as before but this time it was really cold, too cold to mill around in the Ohio winter. I wanted to walk one way or the other. So, how's Barry these days? I said. He's OK, how about Sanya? We hadn't mentioned Barry or Sanya up till then. Sanya is doing well as always I said. OK then Evan dear I will see you later. You look cold. That was the first time she had ever called me dear.

It was about a week after that. Sanya had just come back from class, she walked into the kitchen where I was looking for something to make for supper. Hey guess what! Kristen and Barry are getting married! she said. Wow really? Thats' great ... I said then How long have they been together? It hasn't been that long, has it? but I didn't really listen to the answer. While we were eating supper Kristen called and Sanya chatted with her for a few minutes. When she came back she said They're having a party to celebrate. This Friday, downtown at a place called Bo Long.

When we got to Bo Long that Friday I went straight to the bar and ordered a Scotch. What kind? said the bartender. Any kind I said. When I saw Kristen she was smiling and laughing with a group of friends. An hour into the party we were standing near each other and I turned towards her. She smiled but it wasn't her real smile I could tell. We found a few trivial things to say but we were mainly just watching each other fluster. There was a lot of noise, I couldn't hear what she was saying and I was starting to feel light-headed. Presently a friend came up to Kristen's ear and she began to turn away haltingly. I mumbled Good Luck or Congratulations and turned aside to look for Sanya.

Half an hour later we walked out into a beautiful clear night. The cold air felt like a caress. Sanya and I looked up into the sky. I think Kristen has gained some weight. What do you think? she said. You're right, definitely I said as we walked towards our car.

Obama

People of my age can vaguely remember John F. Kennedy. He was young and boyish for a president and had Irish charm. He smiled naturally. One day I found my mother weeping in front of our TV set. The president was shot. I couldn't understand why my mother had been in love with someone she had never met. I was scared that day. Months later my father was watching a talk show and I asked him what it was about. He said they were talking about the JFK assassination. I said, "What, after all this time?" In 1969 Neil Armstrong walked on the moon and people said we had met Kennedy's challenge to send a man to the moon and return him safely to Earth.

Some people inspire other people. The people feel good about themselves and their country. They think that they can do extravagant things like going to the moon.

Barack Obama is young and boyish for a president and has Kenyan charm. He has an unforced smile. He makes me feel good about myself and my country. And I long to feel the way it felt when Kennedy was president and our country had a hero.

Democracy

The candidates are black, white, and Hispanic, male and female, extremely wealthy and not wealthy, from all regions of the country, sons of CEOs and sons of firemen, former doctors, lawyers, business executives, and preachers, Harvard MBAs and state college graduates. They include advocates of immediate withdrawal from Iraq and no withdrawal, nationalized health care and private health care, tax boosts and tax cuts. These fourteen spent the last year wooing voters, courting contributors, selling their ideas and qualifications.

If you say there is no choice, the candidates are all the same, or this isn't real democracy that's your right. Complaining is the sound of democracy. But behold the contest. Does your favorite football team always win? And when they lose do you cry, "it's fixed!" The same is true in American elections.

The contest for power isn't a pretty minuet, it's a dance of sexual seduction: manipulation, flattery, coyness, and pleading. It appeals to insecurity, greed, and vanity, as well as love and generosity. For some, the result is ecstasy and for others, anger and humiliation. Do you blame the lover who isn't honest, patient, and gentle? Are you? Then why do you denounce politics?

Every four years Americans overthrow their government. We do it without riots, tanks and firing squads. We've taken the violence out of an inherently violent activity. So all of the other facets of our human nature become our weapons.

The Altruistic Immune System (Draft)

Immunity is a resource investment that benefits not only the host organism but also others in its community by preventing the transmission of infectious pathogens. Immunity presumably presents an energy cost to the host for system maintenance as wells as the risk of detrimental effects to the host organism during appropriate or inappropriate immune response. An individual organism living in a community faces a choice as to the quantity of resources (“QR”) to invest in its immune system. A self-interested individual may choose the QR necessary to optimize its own survival. However, if all or most individuals invest a super-optimal QR such that a primary infected individual more effectively fights infection, transmission rates may fall and thereby benefit the community as a whole. This raises the possibility that cooperative population dynamics (ref) may cause QR to evolve to a super-optimal level. As shown in (ref), unicellular organisms living in a spatially structured environment will in some cases cooperatively use a slow rate/high yield respiratory path for ATP production that confers community benefit although each individual organism has the option of exploiting its neighbors by shifting to a high rate/low yield pathway.

In humans, a large portion of the population is affected by allergies, asthma, rheumatoid arthritis and other conditions that may be caused by a ‘hyper-vigilant’ immune system. These conditions may be thought of as part of the cost or burden of the human immune system.

From an individual host's viewpoint, if QR is too low, infection is likely to kill the host but if QR is too high, resource depletion will likely kill the host. So the optimal QR for host survival lies between the two extremes and is influenced by the mix and virulence of pathogens in its environment as well as the probability of primary and secondary infection. In a community of interacting individuals, as QR rises, the probability of secondary infection decreases thus pressuring QR to fall. Similarly, as QR falls, the probability of secondary infection increases thus pressuring QR to rise. However if QR is uniformly high in a community, the decrease in individual survival from the higher QR may be more than offset by an increase in survival from lower secondary infection and thus lead to a net benefit to the community. This raises the following interesting questions: will QR in a community of evolving individuals tend toward the individually-optimized QR or some higher value based on an "altruism" effect? Will individuals increase their QR beyond that required to optimize their own survival so as to benefit other individuals and thereby the community? And will they do so in the face of the evolutionary situation embodied in game theory's "prisoner's dilemma", i.e., if all members of a community invest a high QR, an individual can "defect" by decreasing its own QR and thus enhance its own survival probability at the expense of the community.

In order to explore these ideas, I have created a simulation. Results will be discussed in the next iteration of this post.

Why We Haven't Encountered Intelligent Extraterrestrial Life

Life is a result of the process of evolution and, there being no reason to believe that the Earth is uniquely suited to hosting evolution, it seems reasonable to believe that life is common throughout the universe. The simplest hypothesis would suggest that, of the total star systems in the galaxy, some contain planets with the necessary ingredients and conditions to support life, and of those some have evolved life. Of those planets with life some have evolved forms highly organized into complex, technological cultures. By this logic something like the "Star Trek" universe (or galaxy) seems likely.

The puzzle is this: assuming that we live in a Star Trek universe, why haven't we been contacted or visited by other cultures?

Contrary to the Star Trek universe, the fastest feasible speed for interstellar travel may be limited to some small fraction of light speed. If this is the case then a typical journey between advanced cultures in different star systems might require times on the order of many lifetimes of the individuals.

Very long interstellar journeys would thus require the culture and the individuals comprising it to invest resources for the benefit of their descendants in the distant future, highly altruistic behavior. In fact, the existence of technology for interstellar travel implies a highly organized and highly cooperative culture, one in which a complex web of rules would be necessary to share benefits fairly thus ensuring cooperation. In our own history, as societies have become more complex and as individuals have become more specialized and therefore more dependent upon society, we have developed ever larger bodies of abstract rules embodied in religion, law, and ethics to provide incentives for cooperative behavior. The core and the source of this cultural system is our propensity towards altruism. Our culture is built upon and benefits from the philosophy of altruism and cooperation which is implemented by abstract rule systems. These rule systems seem to evolve towards increasing generality or 'universal-ness' so that our culture's altruistic impulse has even manifested itself as legal protection for other species and for the 'natural' environment.

As Earth culture is the only example we have at the moment, let us assume that other cultures would behave similarly to our own. Projecting our culture into the future or using these ideas to predict another advanced culture, it seems necessary that the achievement of interstellar travel would be accompanied by a high degree of altruistic behavior.

And this is where Star Trek-type ideas give us guidance. It may be that such advanced star-travelling cultures address other less-advanced cultures with a "do not interfere" or "do no harm" policy as in Star Trek. So it may be that other cultures are aware of the existence of our culture but have refrained from making contact out of a desire to protect us in some way.

PostScript: Apparently Daniel Dennett has advanced a similar idea about the development of what he calls "conscience" in humans. This excerpt from Wikipedia discusses his thinking:

In game theory terms, a free rider is an agent who draws benefits from a co-operative society without contributing. In a one-to-one situation, free riding can easily be discouraged by a tit-for-tat strategy. But in a larger-scale society, where contributions and benefits are pooled and shared, they can be incredibly difficult to shake off.

Imagine an elementary society of co-operative organisms. Co-operative agents interact with each other, each contributing resources and each drawing on the common good. Now imagine a rogue free rider, an agent who draws a favor ("you scratch my back") and later refuses to return it. The problem is that free riding is always going to be beneficial to individuals at cost to society. How can well-behaved co-operative agents avoid being cheated? Over many generations, one obvious solution is for co-operators to evolve the ability to spot potential free riders in advance and refuse to enter into reciprocal arrangements with them. Then, the canonical free rider response is to evolve a more convincing disguise, fooling co-operators into co-operating after all. This can lead to an evolutionary arms races, with ever-more-sophisticated disguises and ever-more-sophisticated detectors.

In this evolutionary arms race, how best might one convince comrades that one really is a genuine co-operator, not a free rider in disguise? One answer is by actually making oneself a genuine co-operator, by erecting psychological barriers to breaking promises, and by advertising this fact to everyone else. In other words, a good solution is for organisms to evolve things that everyone knows will force them to be co-operators - and to make it obvious that they've evolved these things. So evolution will produce organisms who are sincerely moral and who wear their hearts on their sleeves; in short, evolution will give rise to the phenomenon of conscience.

This theory, combined with ideas of kin selection and the one-to-one sharing of benefits, may explain how a blind and fundamentally selfish process can produce a genuinely non-cynical form of altruism that gives rise to the human conscience.

Brief Notes

Chromosome 8 Analysis (Nature 19-January-2006): Genomics is providing some interesting insights into human evolution. Analysis of chromosome 8 shows two regions that appear to be undergoing very rapid evolution as revealed by linkage disequilibrium (linkage among chromosome regions increases over time so disequilibrium indicates recent origin) and synonymous/non-synonymous substitution ratio, that is, the ratio of neutral/protein-changing mutations (the ratio is lower if a gene is undergoing positive selection.) Two genes in these regions are MCPH1, mutations in which cause microencephaly, and so is thought to influence brain size, and CSMD1 which is widely expressed in brain tissue.

Small Interfering RNAs (siRNAs) Successfully Protect Mice Against Herpes Simplex Virus 2 (HSV-2) (Nature 5-January-2006): SiRNA technology has been around for a while but (as far as I know) has not been very successful as a therapy. In this study, siRNAs were mixed with lipids and appear to have been taken up by epithelial cells and silenced the expression of several HSV-2 genes without inducing an immune system response.

Rational Strategies in a World with Irrational Agents

Traditional economic theory assumes that economic agents (individuals or firms) always act in a purely rational manner, that is, agents always have perfect knowledge of potential outcomes and always choose optimal strategies for satisfying their preferences. A large body of evidence contradicts these assumptions. So in general the world consists of a mixture of some rational and some irrational agents.

How can aggregate behavior be understood in this context? One way to think about the problem is to use the twin concepts of complementary and substitute strategies.

Strategies are substitutes when agents profit by doing the opposite of others' strategies. In this case, rational agents counteract or limit irrational strategies. With substitutes, evidence indicates that a minority of rational agents may generate aggregate outcomes predicted by the fully rational model. This type of market provides an opportunity for better-informed traders to profit from poorly-informed traders. An example is the case of prediction markets in which an asset is traded up until a precise time when the asset price is determined. For instance, orange juice futures prices, which are very sensitive to cold weather, have been found to predict freezes in Florida better than U.S. Weather Service forecasts.

Strategies are complements when agents profit by matching the strategies of others. In this case rational agents' strategies amplifies irrational strategies. In the case of the stock market, for instance, because there is no fixed future time when a firm's value is determined, well-informed traders cannot guarantee a profit even if they have perfect knowledge of the fundamental value of a firm.

Because of the large amount of volatility in the stock markets, even a well-informed, well-capitalized investor takes a substantial risk by betting against the 'momentum' of the market and can be forced into following the crowd, that is, trying to predict the strategies of others and get there first. As Keynes said, "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid." Thus we have examples of large mispricings in the stock market including mutual funds whose underlying aggregate value does not match the fund's share price.

A well-known example of the difference in these two situations can be seen when a firm is put into 'play', that is, when it appears that the firm will be acquired. Rational traders suddenly have an opportunity to use their knowledge to make a profit and the share price often increases dramatically. Clearly the reason is not a sudden increase in the intrinsic value of the firm.